Trial, Error and Progress.

Rule: Knowledge is built upon what is known and can be expanded though observation and inspiration.

 In statistics there are:

Type I error represents a false positive. Usually, a type I error leads one to conclude that a supposed effect or relationship exists when in fact it doesn't. Examples of type I errors include a test that shows a patient to have a disease when in fact the patient does not have the disease, a fire alarm going off indicating a fire when in fact there is no fire or an experiment indicating that a medical treatment should cure a disease when in fact it does not.

A type II error (or error of the second kind) is the failure to reject a false null hypothesis. With respect to the non-null hypothesis, it represents a false negative. Examples of type II errors would be a blood test failing to detect the disease it was designed to detect, in a patient who really has the disease; a fire breaking out and the fire alarm does not ring or a clinical trial of a medical treatment failing to show that the treatment works when really it does.^[2]

When comparing two means, concluding the means were different when they were not different would be a Type I error; concluding the means were not different when in reality they were different would be a Type II error.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_and_type_II_errors 

Why is this important?

Type I errors suggest a course of action when none is needed.

Type ll errors suggest no course of action is needed when one is needed.

Both relate to a false premise. Therefore, reasoning is important to avoid needless or wrong actions.

Take reading this blog.

Assume all the ‘rules’ are wrong especially about making decisions based on facts because this is all crap, fake news, and faulty presentation. You could make some decisions that make thing worse, not better! This is mostly Type 1 territory as you should ignore this blog and not make any decisions based on the “rules” because they are faulty.

Assume all the ‘rules’ are correct, and you don’t use them to make decisions. That’s like the fire alarm going off, you don’t leave the building and it burns to the ground.

While Type I errors may seem unlikely to be harmful, they have inhibited activity or led to false conclusions, with consequences. The widespread belief that the earth was flat inhibited explorers form venturing too far on the globe for fear they would fall off the edge. Superstitions of all kinds have translated into serious negative results. In the case of the flat world premise, sailors mutinied resulting in unnecessary death. Various moral or spiritual conventions have led to war between groups that would seem irrational from a third-party perspective.

Type II errors have clear consequences. 

The scientific method refers to bodies of techniques for investigating phenomena, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on gathering observable, empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning. A scientific method consists of the collection of data through observation and experimentation, and the formulation and testing of hypotheses. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method 

The first experimental scientific method was developed by Muslim scientists, who introduced the use of experimentation and quantification to distinguish between competing scientific theories set within a generally empirical orientation, which emerged with Alhazen's optical experiments in his Book of Optics (1021). 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method#History

In The Scientists, John Gribbin outlines that in the Renaissance period, roughly 1453-1687, Western thought was transformed from a near worship of ancient thought to an acceptance of the scientific method. In the periods following the fall of the Roman Empire, the Dark Ages and the Middle Ages were a period of virtual scientific and technological stagnation. Ancients, the Egyptian, Greek and Roman philosophers, and engineers were seen as far superior to those of the Dark Ages and the Middle Ages.  ...the Pantheon and the Colosseum in Rome still inspire awe today, and at a time when all knowledge of how to build such structures had been lost, it must have seemed that they were the work of a different species – or of gods.” ( p.3)

There are several important points to take from this. 1) That the old is better than the contemporary. 2) That knowledge builds and lost knowledge is a void (that contemporaries may not be up to filling) 3) That the knowledge of old must be superior to what contemporaries may find 4) Errors must be found in the old to allow the new to progress.

In short, the scholars of the Dark and Middle Ages had a giant inferiority complex relative to the Ancients. This was likely due to religious beliefs that God created the world and the closer to this point just after creation was closer to perfection.  

It may be said that the universe has near infinite diversity. Structures or processes compete
through trial and error. This can happen through happenstance or design. There is a certain 
randomness in the universe. (The concept of entropy is related but will be discussed later.)  
Certain structures or processes only get to interact if they are in proximity.  
Intelligence can turn this happenstance into design. It is our responsibility to determine the 
facts and proceed with an analysis that may lead to progress. 
“I shall try to correct errors were shown to be errors, and I shall adopt new views as fast
 as they shall appear to be true views.” 
Abraham Lincoln Source: Letter to Horace Greeley
©
“When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?”
― John Maynard Keynes

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Vladislav Babienko